06 November 2019

Martin Jarrold, chief of international programme development, GVF

I should begin this latest column by explaining my choice of sub-title.

It is not meant to be a pun on the ascent to orbit of satellites atop launch vehicles.

I am not intending to explore launcher flight dynamics, or to extoll the virtues of particular launch site locations over others (though, of course, equatorial launches are the most advantageous for several reasons, including that satellites intended to attain geostationary orbit, e.g., communication satellites, must have zero inclination with respect to the equatorial plane).

Rather, my reference is to one of my earlier articles in this publication, in which I made observations on the growth of satellite in Africa – for example, satellite programmes, mainly, but not only, in the earth observation ‘smallsat’ arena, recently introduced or announced by such countries as (alphabetically listed) Algeria, Angola, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mauritius, Morocco, Nigeria, South Africa, and Tunisia – and my use of the word “comparative” refers to a panel discussion session that is now in preparation by GVF (and its partner organisation C21 Communications) as part of a conference on high throughput satellites we will hold in London at the beginning of December.

That panel session is entitled ‘Starship UK’ and it will look at the United Kingdom as a global leader in space-related innovation at a period of critical and accelerated development in… NewSpace*. 

The UK does, of course, have a long history of major contribution to space industries and space activities – early launcher development (where Britain was ahead of everyone else for some time); building satellites for scientific, military, as well as communication applications; astronauts on the International Space Station; to name only three – but NewSpace* is different.

Like the African nations listed above, only on a significantly greater scale, Britain is becoming a regional space power, edging towards “front-runner” status in the Earth observation (and IoT) ‘smallsats’ environment.

The 2nd December conference, titled as the HTS Roundtable – GEOs, MEOs, LEOs: Enabling a Brave New World, will also address themes covering the HTS satellite operators already operating/planning to operate in GEO, MEO & LEO; the new paradigms of a multi-orbit future for the service providers and value-added resellers (VARS); and, ground segment network architecture innovations.

I’ve written here before about the importance of HTS for bridging Africa’s digital divide and for achieving universal access to broadband.

According to the Paris, France-based consultancy, Euroconsult, analysis of figures for 2017 and forecasts for 2027 shows that satellite’s imperative contribution to backhaul for cellular/mobile networks will result in a four-fold increase in demand for in-orbit satellite bandwidth that is dedicated to cellular networks (2017 = 68GHz; 2027 = 269GHz), resulting in a multiple of x1.8 in satellite operator revenues from backhaul (2017 = US$1.4B; 2027 = US$2.5B).

The differential multiple of these growth factors is a reflection of the effect of increased in-orbit (HTS) capacity on bandwidth capacity pricing.

Northern Sky Research (NSR), the Cambridge, MA, USA-based research and consulting firm, has found an average global decline in satellite capacity pricing of 18 per cent from 2018 to 2019 and estimates a further decline across 2019-2020.

Though this figure is a global average and does not focus on the specific situation for the African continent, it is very firmly indicative of a general trend across all regions.

The continued evolution of HTS – from traditional GEO spacecraft (with throughput below 1Gbps) through to very high throughput satellites (VHTS, with GEO spacecraft throughput up to 1,000Gbps, or 1Tbps, and with next generation MEOs and LEO mega-constellations also in the mix), post-2020 – is, according to Euroconsult, re-shaping space segment costs. There is a clear pattern of significant decline in CAPEX per Gbps. Traditional GEO satellites had a CAPEX per Gbps of greater than US$60 million. With early HTS spacecraft the CAPEX per Gbps figure had dropped to just more than US$7 million. The figure has continued to drop through successive generations of HTS, and with VHTS capacities of 500Gbps to 1Tbps expected soon, the CAPEX per Gbps is forecast to reach almost as low as US$0.7 million.

But it’s not just all about in-orbit capacity prices and reduced cost per bit.

Other factors contribute to service pricing for the user – in the case of backhaul, the Mobile Network Operators (MNOs).

Ground equipment efficiency has greatly increased since the introduction of Adaptive Coding & Modulation (ACM), and Forward Error Correction (FEC) technologies, resulting in satellite payloads optimising their spectral efficiency, thus reducing bandwidth prices.

Additionally, more providers entering the market has, unsurprisingly, had the effect of introducing downward price pressures.

The HTS Roundtable is not the next event on the GVF-C21 schedule.

October 29th will see the return of AeroConnect – The Inflight Online Revolution at 35,000 feet.

This conference dialogue will also reference evolution in the HTS ecosystem; evolution that will help facilitate the significant growth in aero connectivity that is forecast.

According to Euroconsult, the total of connected aircraft in 2017 stood at just 4,772; this number is forecast to rise to 27,919 by 2027.

Over this decade aero connectivity demand for bandwidth is expected increase 20-fold (from 9GHz to 181GHz) and provider revenues are projected to increase 8-fold (from US$317million to US$2.5billion).

Bringing aero connectivity to the world’s commercial air routes will certainly impact services flying between (some of) Africa’s national capitals and non-African cities (in Europe, North America, China?) before it impacts international services within the continent, or national domestic services.

However, with the anticipated accelerated growth in on-orbit high throughput capacity from, for example, the launching of the many mega-LEOs currently in development, and the practical roll-out of various emerging innovations in electronically steerable flat panel antenna technologies – fostering new and much cheaper terminal designs and reducing connectivity costs for the airlines – even more aircraft will become connected.