16 January 2026

Jane Ielmini, Co-Founder/ Chief Operating Officer, Orbotic Systems Inc.

For centuries, sailors voyaged by the stars. Navigators across oceans and deserts relied on clear skies and celestial constellations, unobstructed, reliable, and constant, to guide their journeys. Today, our guiding lights are very different: tens of thousands of satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO) power everything from communications to GPS, remote sensing to disaster response. But unlike the uncluttered heavens of old, Earth’s orbital lanes are now crowded, dangerously so.

Rising traffic, rising risk

According to the European Space Agency’s 2025 Space Environment Report, approximately 40,000 objects are now tracked in orbit, including about 11,000 active satellites. Yet, the real scale of the problem is much larger: ESA estimates there are over 1.2 million debris fragments larger than 1 cm, and more than 50,000 objects above 10 cm — each capable of inflicting catastrophic damage on operational spacecraft. Other sources note this could rise to 54,000 objects larger than 10 cm and over a million fragments between 1 cm and 10 cm, with hundreds of millions of smaller pieces in orbit as of mid 2024.

Each satellite, especially in commercial mega-constellations launched today, increases collision risk. In 2024 alone, over 2,500 objects were launched into LEO, many by commercial systems like Starlink or Amazon’s Project Kuiper. Industry experts warn that if trends continue, orbits could support nearly 50,000 objects larger than 10 cm by 2050, putting critical infrastructure at risk.

Kessler syndrome: a hazard on the horizon

Named for NASA’s Donald Kessler, the Kessler syndrome refers to a cascading scenario in which a single collision creates thousands of debris fragments that in turn collide with other objects — thus reproducing ever more debris. Simulations suggest we may already be entering this junction. If we fail to intervene, entire swaths of LEO could become effectively unusable for decades or centuries.

The loss of space crafts is not theoretical. Even millimeter-sized fragments can puncture satellites or degrade sensitive components like solar panels or sensors. In 2016, a paint fleck caused a 7 mm chip in the International Space Station’s window this incident illustrates just how destructive even small debris can be.

Operators today, including those providing wireless and satellite-based services, face tangible operational risk and financial consequences. Collision avoidance maneuvers (called Debris Avoidance Maneuvers or DAMs) are planned whenever predicted conjunction risk exceeds a threshold such as 1 in 10,000. These maneuvers consume fuel, command operations, and risk mission disruption. Analysts estimate that up to 5–10 % of a mission’s budget may be tied to collision avoidance, especially in congested LEO bands.

Moreover, SSA (Space Situational Awareness) tracking — while improving — is still imperfect. Forecasting debris position even one day ahead has median errors of nearly 100 meters at 600 km altitude, limiting precise risk assessment. Many fragments under 10 cm remain untracked altogether, yet still pose major hazards.

Navigating the orbital commons: what to do

1. Design constellations for deorbit
   Operators should ensure satellites are engineered to deorbit within five years of mission end—far more aggressive than the previous 25-year guideline. This FCC 5 year rule reduces long-term fragment risk and limits hazardous drift in orbiting lanes.
2. Embed sustainability by design
   From the earliest architecture stages, mission planners should account for satellite density, fragmentation risk, and end-of-life disposal. Standards from UN COPUOS, the IADC, and ISO emphasize limiting debris release, passivation of fuel, and responsible operations.
3. Invest in active debris removal
   Controlled cleanup, such as Astroscale’s or ClearSpace’s missions, is essential. Current remediating technologies, including nets, harpoons, tethers, drag sails, and lasers, show promise for clearing large defunct objects before collision cascades begin.
4. Coordinate via shared SSA networks
   Operators should share real-time positional data through SSA platforms (e.g. LeoLabs, COMSPOC) and avoid ad hoc or siloed exchange. Coordinated maneuvers and shared catalogs reduce duplication and uncertainty.
5. Support regulatory and industry frameworks
   Leading operators should engage with frameworks like ESA’s Zero Debris Charter (with goal of zero generation by 2030), the Space Sustainability Rating (a joint effort from WEF, ESA, MIT), and UN Long-Term Sustainability guidelines. Regulators now increasingly demand sustainability credentials as part of licensing — underlining the value of early engagement.

Why operators should care

• Continuity: Unplanned maneuvers and satellite loss hurt network reliability.
• Cost: Avoidance, replacement, and insurance escalate mission budgets.
• Reputation: Operators seen as irresponsible may lose access to launch licenses and sustainability ratings.
• Access: Without careful management, key orbital bands may become unsupportable, limiting future expansions or emergency deployments.

A Collective duty

No single operator can solve the space debris crisis alone. But operators hold a responsibility — to design space sustainable missions, to share situational awareness, and to adopt or support active removal initiatives.

Let’s choose a different path. Let’s honor the legacy of navigation by the stars by stewarding our own ‘stars in orbit.’ Smart design, cooperative coordination, and intentional deorbit planning can help protect global satcom infrastructure — for today’s networks, and for future generations.