03 March 2025
Africa’s smartphone market is expected to grow at a modest 2% in 2025, due to economic complexities.
This is according to Canalys’ latest research, which outlines the mixed fortunes of the continent’s smartphone market. Factors affecting the depressed outlook across the different African markets include persistently high inflation, currency depreciation risks, limited economic momentum, and policy shifts.
Canalys says Nigeria's smartphone market declined 1% in Q4 2024, maintaining a 14% regional share, as rising living costs offset festive season gains. The research suggests 2025 may bring further strain, with telecom operators permitted to increase tariff hikes by up to 50%, likely to slow demand as consumers grapple with higher data costs.
Kenya experienced a 4% decline in Q4 2024, as new regulations introduced in November mandate tax compliance verification before devices can connect to local networks increased operational requirements for vendors and slowed short-term shipments.
South Africa experienced a mild 1% drop in Q4 2024, as improving economic conditions, lower interest rates and stronger consumer confidence supported the market's recovery from a double-digit drop in the previous quarter.
Egypt maintained its growth momentum for the fourth consecutive quarter, recording 12% growth, driven by fiscal stability. However, in January 2025, the country imposed an import tax of up to 38.5% on imported mobile phones to boost local production and regulate imports, reinforcing the need for strong local manufacturing.
Canalys noted that Algeria continued to benefit from post-2020 economic reforms, with the smartphone market growing 11% in Q4 2024. In contrast, Morocco's smartphone market fell 34% in Q4, as vendors struggled to cope with higher customs duties introduced in early 2024, which increased prices, reduced consumer spending and led to delayed upgrades.
“The 49% year-on-year growth in the sub-$100 price band in Q4 2024 highlights the growing financial strain on consumers. Transsion, while maintaining its leadership with a 49% market share, saw a modest 1% year-on-year growth in Q4 2024 while facing the challenge of intensifying competition,” said Manish Pravinkumar, senior analyst at Canalys.
